4A or not to 4A That is the question.
The answer is not an easy one to answer. Lets first look at what happens if the 4A project goes away. What will be the ramifications that Derry will face? This is the very point I had made at our council meeting Tuesday night. We all know that projections for residential population growth in East Derry, Chester, Sandown, Raymond will continue to grow. Now add to the populace once the I93 widening goes according to plan. We start to see major gridlock on Rte 102 in Derry getting to Exit 4 on Interstate 93. Without mitigation, expect to see business choked off and once this happens no business will want to locate in the downtown. So from this standpoint, we should get this done.
Next, by building exit 4A will have economic impact in a positive manner. Businesses will want to locate close-by to easy access points on and off I 93 which presently speaking we don't have today. This is one reason why we lose business to Londonderry. From this standpoint we should get it done.
Now lets look at some important issues that keep coming up.
Most important- Where's the beef? or where's the money coming from. We know the longer this goes on the more costly it becomes. We now have a figure of about 20-30 million to complete the project with 5 million committed by each Londonderry and Derry and 3 million from the state.
This is where we must be careful in making sure all accurate information can be received by the public. The people against are assuming that because we have a price tag on project, that the towns will have to pay. Again that is an assumption by these people. We are only obligated to the 5Million. So when we hear the horror stories of having to attract 24 Walmarts to make this thing work- remember that they assume that we will not get any fed funds or additional state funds. I don't think there is a politician alive that would support only local support.
I will say however that it will be of utmost importance that the local politicians, state politicians, county and NH fed politicians will need to use our collective powers to demand to be heard on this issue. After all we are the 4Th largest community! We must demand action and we must do it together!
The special 4 A meeting was interesting. I do understand that some people will be affected by this project and are not happy about it. no doubt. However, what i found interesting was that the Londonderry residents said they are not happy because Derry benefits from this. And I heard that the Derry residents aren't happy because Londonderry benefits from this. Each side thinks the other will make out.- I think everyone wins myself.
I'm sure that this discussion will be a major discussion point in upcoming elections.
Lets look at facts and separate the assumptions and not be scared by these tactics, on the other hand we need to make sure everything is looked at, discussed and reviewed under a microscope. Which leads me to say that we need to finish the EIS study and then we can hold the politicians accountable for getting us fed and state money.
I know, i know you are saying that the state and feds keep saying they have none. and if you choose to believe this and do nothing-we get what we deserve in the end, however i notice as the feds and state say they have no money- Manchester keeps getting projects done- Why, They know together they have the power. They keep saying 93 has no money to complete and that all state projects are pushed out, yet i see on a daily basis the airport access road which benefits Bedford, Merrimack and Manchester being worked on, money being spent again why?, They collectively demand to be heard and what about Derry and Londonderry? Will we be heard or are we going to debate hypothetical with each other while other communities laugh and get their projects done. Think about it folks. We need to start demanding! Now Today!
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68 comments:
It appears to me that Mr. Newell has lauched his campaign for the District 3 seat...ah, the campaign season starts sooooo early. And he's going to run on an "AGAINST 4A Plank"
His "math" shows it will require 200 or so Walmarts to come in for it to pay off. He didn't mention anything about traffic on 102 --- does he think that paving Manning Street was the answer?
He also mentions in the paper today that the ADT has over 100 members and at a recent meeting they voted to oppose 4A. NOTE THE CAREFUL FRAMING OF THAT POINT. For all we really know, the vote was 3-0 with Newell, Hopfgarten, and Lund casting the deciding votes.
I know more than a few "members" of that group and they are on it for the mailing list only.
I wonder when the Derry News is going to catch on that he is running and eliminate his occassional guest column...his opponent will demand equal time. Or will the Derry News do one of their usual wink-wink nods.
Is this some of the same patented Doug Newell math that he used say public kindergarten was going to cost the same as a Harvard degree during his failed school board campaign?
The voters didn't like his math then, I doubt they'll like it any better in March.
And should we really be suprised that the 100 member strong ADT came out against something?
Nothing wrong with being against something if there's another alternative that your in favor of, but these guys always seem to forget that part of the equation.
I sense a vast apathetic majority in favor of 4A. How in the world are you going to get Mary Mainstreet to take the time away from her job, three kids, dog, and husband to come forward to favor something that is that many years out? On the other hand and of course we'll hear criticism from the homeowners directly impacted and the political junkies. Get on with it already!
I for one have found Doug Newell as being among the painfully few citizens of Derry and even fewer politicians, that is capable not only of forming an opinion but always backs them up with numbers.
Numbers....those pesky, boring and confusing things, that push too many decision makers in town to cry out, as their last line in a vapid defense, "but this is how we have always done it!"
I hope Doug Newell does run for council as surmised by our apparently number phobic townie, anon 2:53. Given the level of taxes we pay in this community for schools and town services, a guy like Doug should be heard and welcomed because something is just not adding up in the Derry equation.
How can you tell who is running for Council?
It's easy, look for the guy who hasn't volunteered for a board or committee, a guy who we haven't seen all spring and summer, and a guy who starts showing up to Council meetings in September wearing a tie to speak at the public forums.
Bingo!
Anon 8:55, just a reminder, many people take in the council meetings dressed in little more than their underwear thanks to communication advancements. Does that mean they are not engaged?
Do you hold it against Doug Newell, or anyone for that matter that he wears a tie?
You prefer tattered tee-shirts, ripped jeans and a shoot from the hip approach?
As for not serving on other boards, in your view, why would that preclude anyone from running? This view is truly mystifying.
Does this account for the all to often misplaced sense of "above reproach" status afforded some board and committee members? It is this same entrenched, long standing offical, that requires the highest vigilance. There are many local personalities in town that bear this out. They regularly over step their authority and end up giving us all a black-eye's.
It seems that 4A addresses two things; a seed for economic development and relief of downtown traffic. Both problems are worthy of tackeling. Anyone that has an idea that nails those two things as well for less money...I, for one, will listen with an open mind.
Come to the table, though, holding the bar at the same height as you hold for 4A; if you want final numbers from the 4A advocates, be prepared with final numbers for your ideas.
Or you could choose to be "unconstructive" and just be against it without any ideas that you favor, apparently believing that the two problems mentioned don't exist.
I'd be willing to bet that the same people who are in favor of opening Manning Street against the advice of the traffic study, to supposedly relieve traffic congestion, are the same people who are against Exit 4A, which will actually help the congestion problem.
Let's all watch and see how it plays out.
Well after reading the eight comments on a simple post ... one would realize Derry has more issues than Manning Street Ext and whether 4a should exist or not.
So you want to talk about 4A? Ok, let’s see if we can toss around some ideas and have some fun. First, since I probably know most of you, you all can drop the Mr. Newell and call me Doug. Then, before we get into serious ideas, I should correct/comment on some of the anonymous postings:
21/9/07 12:25 Thank you sir, you are too kind. I believe I can guess your identity. Your high degree of literacy gives you away. I enjoy your writings.
21/9/07 11:26 I agree the discussion should turn on issues and facts not upon the ties I wear. Thank you for trying to raise the quality of the debate.
20/9/07 2:53 seems to think that I’m running for Town Council District #3. I haven’t announced anything like that but I would certainly welcome a change of representation for my district. I believe there is also an at-large seat that would benefit from some new ways of thinking. 2:53 misquotes me as suggesting that 200 Wal-Marts would be needed. Let’s get the facts straight, I said that 24 would be needed but the 200 number is also good since Derry’s chance of getting development equal to 24 is the same as for 200…probability = zero.
Since my math is questioned here is the logic:
$30MM total cost estimate as of the most recent meeting.
$5MM coming from Londonderry
subtraction yields $25MM to be paid by someone
The State of NH long ago promised $3MM (I discount that to $0 since they have their own issues paying for basic maintenance but in any case likely cost overruns would quickly consume the $3MM)
The Feds. Derry and Londonderry combined populations contain less than 10% of the population of 1 congressional district. That district has one of the 435 representatives all trying to get their snouts in the federal trough. Our local politicians seem so certain of success in tapping this source that they are willing to spend additional tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars on a 4A EIS. This study has no value without federal funding for the project and no federal funding has been promised or even hinted at by the folks in Washington. (By the way I’d love to open up another discussion as to whether something that is a poor investment with local money becomes a good one with someone else’s money… sort of an ethical discussion. I think it was Alexis de Tocqueville who said that democracy in America would work until Americans discovered that they could use their votes to steal from their neighbors. I’m sure Alaskans can justify in their minds the “bridge to nowhere” too. But I digress.)
The principle and interest on the remaining $25MM equals $39.6MM. Taking the current local tax rate into account and projecting that the incremental build-out is 50% done in 5 years and 100% done in ten years that requires $120 million in incremental commercial build-out to pay for the exit. But that is to break even. Only a very foolish investor enters a deal clinging to the hope of breaking even. I doubled that $120 million to accommodate delays, real estate market fluctuations, and cost overruns. $240 million equals 24 Super Wal-Marts according to the Route 28 TIF discussions.
Finally, let’s assume that the feds pick up all but Derry’s $5 million. 24 Super Wal-Marts divided by 5 equals roughly 5 Super Wal-Marts. Does the town council believe that Derry will gain the equivalent to 5 Super Wal-Marts to justify a $5 million investment?
p.s. I will address the traffic issue in a future posting but did you know that Derry’s population only grew by 82 people in the 6 years from 2000 to 2006? (US Census)
p.p.s I will continue to wear a tie (anon 21/9/07) first because as I come to meetings straight from work and second because I was taught that it shows respect for the audience. Get over it.
p.p.p.s. (20/09/07 2:53) I’m not sure I get your points. Is it your contention that the vote at the 9/13/07 ADT meeting did not represent the opinions of the group as a whole? Also regarding eliminating my column in the Derry News, is your first reaction to opposing views always to silence them? Hmmm, I think I know your type…You should call me Mr. Newell.
Doug,
Thanks for sharing your viewpoint on the issue of 4A. I know you mentioned that you will talk about the traffic issue in a future post and you mentioned the population growth for Derry was 82 people. I think i know where you are going with that information, but before you do you will need to find out Chester's, Raymond's Freemont's Auburn's as well. They all use Rte 102 as well. Just wanted to bring this up as well.
BTW- this regional impact should also have the feds coffing up more money.
BC,
I must admit my ignorance (after living here about 24 years!) as to where Freemont NH is and it seems to be a bit of a stretch to include it in Derry’s traffic consideration. But if you want it in, no big deal, with its population of 3 or 4 thousand, it gets lost in the numbers. Looking at Derry and all the communities you referenced the growth rate over the last 6 years has been less than 1% per year. (Aren’t facts wonderful in putting “problems” into perspective?)
Of course as you go farther from Derry into these outlying towns less and less of their traffic flows through Derry. Therefore their higher growth rates become even more inconsequential. For example, based on travel time to work statistics, I believe only a minority of Freemont residents could be coming through Derry. I’m trying to dig into NH Dept of Transportation stats to provide your readers with greater insights into all this. I find it more satisfying to use facts in making major financial decisions rather than using vague recollections of the times I got stuck in local traffic.
DJN
Doug,
No problem. First Chester has had the highest population growth in Rockingham county the last 2-3 years with Derry being the lowest ( thanks to the GMO ). Now since you will be compiling data for the readers, might i suggest going to Southern NH Planning which is a regional planning commission and who use real statistics in future population growths surrounding our town and it's 4A impacts. This commission has a 2020 look at the ramifacations of building or not building 4A. I'm just trying to save you some time. Let us know what you find.
We all like facts and real numbers; conclusions, though, should directly tie related facts to the matter at hand.
Mr. Newells opposition to Kindergarten went something like this --- here is fact A, B, & C, therefore kindergarten will cost Derry $72,000 per child. There was a major league disconnect.
There are already some major holes and confusion in his latest assertion. Let's begin to clear this up Mr. Newell.
Does your math utilize ROI principles (the return part being additional tax revenues generated) or does your Super Walmart $$ figure simply refer to construction costs?
Doug/Mr. Newell,
I'm not really sure how to address you due to your stereotypical profiling of certain "types" here in Derry in your earlier post.
While I do not necessarily fault you, it is unfortunate for everyone that Derry politics has degenerated to its current level. But I too, digress.
Given your affinity for numbers, maybe you could help me with defining one. In your best estimation, what is the cost of progress for the town of Derry?
We obviously do not want to stay where we are today, right? And inflation is increasing at around the same number as Derry's tax cap, correct?
So how much money should we spend on progress? Whether it is 4A, kindergarten, a senior center, education, open space, historical preservation or whatever else the taxpayers might feel enhances their quality of life. What do you feel is a fair cost of that quality of life?
p.s. In your defense, I think most people could care less what you wear to council meetings, in my opinion it has no place in this discussion.
BC – I prefer to use the US Census (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 Population Estimates, Census 2000, 1990 Census) since they are not projecting 20 years into the future and they have about 200 years experience working with population figures. Not to mention that it appears that someone is putting a spin on the number they are presenting to you. That being said, your figures on growth in Chester may be right, the problem is, as I said, someone teed up those numbers for a purpose. Chester may be one of the fastest growing towns in the county IN PERCENTAGE terms. They grew 22% in the 6 years between 2000 and 2006. However that was on a low base and equals only 143 people per year (about 60 households) added to their population. This is hardly a reason to spend $30MM.
But it gets even better than that…according to the US Census estimates Derry’s population peaked in 2002 and has been falling since. This may explain the equally interesting data from the NH Dept of Transportation which shows traffic counts on Rt. 102 declining. e.g., Rt. 102 West of Abbot Street, 2002 count = 16,000, 2005 (most recent) = 14,000 vehicles. That’s a 12.5% drop in 3 years. The same source reveals that Rt. 102 traffic is declining in Chester and is almost flat in Raymond. The traffic justification for 4A is at least mortally wounded if not DOA. I am still waiting for anyone to show me where we are putting 24 or even just 5 Super Wal-Marts that are needed to build a financial case for this boondoggle. (how about if we stack the WalMarts and let Derry fire buy really cool high ladder trucks?... just kidding)
No, the development justification is also DOA.
I really think that someone besides a slightly bored executive killing time on a Thursday afternoon should be doing some due diligence before you folks on the council drop big bucks on useless studies.
Oh yes Anon 4:45 “facts and real numbers; conclusions, though, should directly tie related facts to the matter at hand”… sorry I’m not following you. The proponents of spending $30 million (over $50 if you include bond interest) have given 2 justifications for this expenditure. I have just demolished both, first working the numbers to show that a positive impact for the taxpayers is unlikely given the cost of the project and the needed huge build-out to offset those costs through increased tax revenues. The second reason given was the traffic in Derry. This problem appears to be solving itself given the declining population of the town and the declining traffic counts on Rt. 102.What part of these facts do not relate to the matters at hand?
As for the long ago issues raised in the school election, I have explained incremental cost analysis to you on several occasions. Clearly, my communications skills as not as strong as I might wish. I never said that it would cost $72k per student. I may have said that it would cost $72K per incremental student. If 99 kids are already going to school and it costs $72,000 to get a 100th in school then the incremental cost for that 100th student is $72,000 to the taxpayers. From the vote count you were hardly alone in not getting what I was trying to communicate, namely that if universal access to kindergarten was the goal there were cheaper ways to achieve it. I will endeavor to make my points more clearly in the future.
DJN
NFW,
Please call me Doug. My “stereotypical profiling of certain "types" here in Derry” in my earlier post was referring to people who’s first reaction to a contrary opinion is to silence it, ala by suggesting the cancellations of my column in the Derry News. I am a strong advocate of free speech and cannot count as a friend anyone who would silence others. Unfortunately these “types” are not confined to Derry.
Now as to your very good question as to what price progress? My first reaction is that your view of progress and mine may not be identical. I view progress as having enough money to finish putting my kids through college. Unfortunately, progress for many of the members of our community equals making the next mortgage payment or not having to move out of their childhood homes because they can’t pay the taxes. I do not see the local government as a major source of progress although it can certainly be a positive force for change. The people generate progress through their hard work.
Most importantly, building an exit on a highway may not be progress at all. Two potential sources of progress have been put on the table by 4A proponents, increased development and decreased traffic. The purpose of increased development is to lower the tax burden. If Exit 4A can not attract enough development it to pay for itself, it will act in reverse and make Derry less livable, increasing everyone’s taxes. I have attempted to quantify the necessary development levels from 4A that would make Derry better and I have pointed out that those levels are unreasonablely optimistic if not physically impossible..
Tonight I addressed the issue of traffic. Derry’s population has been declining. According to the NH Dept of Transportation, RT 102 traffic has also been declining. Exit $A may have been a great idea in the boom town years of the 1980’s but the times have changed. Some of our politicians have failed to look around and check the calendar. We may not agree on what is progress. Exit 4A takes money that could be used to promote your view of progress or returned to the taxpayers to promote mine. We both lose.
DJN
At the last council meeting, Brent Carney attempted to send us down a dangerously wrong path regarding availability of State and Federal funds.
The team that declares themselves "losers" will never win. The cities that believe that there are no Federal and State Funds available and, therefore, do not press for them, will never get any. Couple that with the fact that most of our State Delegation is philosophically against State and Federal money troughs, so we are not in line on that basis as well.
Just recently, a long stretch 102 in Londonderry was needlessly repaved and the very substantial Rte 111 connector project continues. Folks, these projects are dwarfed in regional impact by exit 4A.
Following the ideas of the likes of Doug Newell, Brent Carney and Paul Hopfgarten will lead a decaying town AND higher taxes.
If I understand the last post right, it is saying that like or not the troughs exist now, will exist in the future and we are not trying very hard to get our share?
Doug,
I do not know what your reasoning is against using Southern NH Planning Commission projections for any fact finding. I will say this.It is a very professional unbiased regional commission with staff highly educated in these specific fields. I feel that you are just taking a small snipit of information ( 6yr DOT figures) to specifically make your case. In planning, one must look at present, short and long terms to make a good judgement. For example one could make the same case with school children populations in Derry are on the decline- this is a true statement! However one must look out a little bit longer to see that it eventually becomes more children in lets say years 7-30 years. Just like a Capital Improvement Plan we look at the present, we look at the next 5-6 years AND we look out to 30 years so that we can properly plan. I would submit, you are looking at a very small bit in the overall picture.
Points well taken BC.
I would also submit that Mr. Newell is opposed to any economic development that can't be justified. That seems like simple common sense, right?
The problem is that NO-NONE-ZERO economic development can be justified unless you were to get companies to sign a contract B4 you committed to or provided the infrastructure. Obviously, that's not a real world possibility.
So in Mr. Newells view, we cannot pursue any economic development that doesn't carry comittments before we spend a dime. It's not stretch to then conclude that he doesn't believe we need economic development despite our lopsided tax base.
And now we also understand that he doesn't believe we have a traffic problem on 102.
All this marks a very interesting campaign approach --- "elect me because we have no problems!"?
anyone notice the Burtis letter in the DN 9/28. he is against 4A however he lobbied for the Manning St extention because he complained about glidlock on Rte 102. WOW he wants relief on Rte 102 and uses Manning St as that relief and ignores the 4A relief. I believe one of this blog readers pointed that this would be the case and it sure came true.
anon 11:48
I'm sure debating stawmen that you set up is easier than dealing with real people.
Your suggestion that no economic development can be justified without signed contracts is ludicrous. Have you ever made an investment decision? Businesses make investments every day without signed commitments. The difference is careful planning and analysis. I wouldn't invest based upon the assumption that my company was about to win the lottery neither should Derry invest based upon the financials of Exit 4A. Please provide me with a scenario where the expected outcome from 4A equals or exceeds $50 million in incremental commercial development. (yes, for the numerically impaired, using my analogy that is 5 Super WalMarts)
Regarding the traffic situation, clearly you do not let facts get in the way of your opinions so I really don't have much to say to you on that score. If you would like, I'll provide the number of NH Dept of Transportation and you can discuss their traffic counts with them.
bc- We all win some and lose some. Let Manning Street go. We understand that "all politics are local." You did your best.
Doug,
I have always said that I am but 1 councilor and that 7 need to vote on Manning St. We voted and the vote came out to pave it. I'm over that part of it. I find it ironic that someone who uses Rte 102 traffic issues as a reason to lobby it and then uses the same traffic to lobby against 4 A is hypocritical. Another point is when are we going to listen to the experts? The Manning st traffic study said in the report that unless there were a traffic light at Manning Broadway OR Broadway Maple-the manning St ext would not be recommended. Why? becasue the experts know that cueing on Manning Broadway Will become an issue and from what I see, businesses at the granary and Derry Feed customers will soon find out that these business will not be easy to navigate in and out of. Oh well- careful for what some people wish for. I'll be the one who says told you so. My point again is when will we listen to the experts? When its too late??
Mr. Newell,
To answer your challenge:
"Please provide me with a scenario where the expected outcome from 4A equals or exceeds $50 million in incremental commercial development."
1. I assume you will grant
that it is more likely that 1 Super Walmmart is coming than your politically motivated option of hitting the lottery.
2. As for the other 4, take your pick - Kohls, Dicks Sporting Goods, Best Buy, Circut City, Barnes and Noble, Boarders, Petsmart, Office Max, Decathalon Sports, A Toyota/Honda/Nissan Dealership, Target, CompUSA, etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc.,etc..
3. And of course the large impact of literally 100's of smaller businesses that always come along with just a few of the above.
Since you've now acknoweledged that contracts don't have to exist beforehand, we can simply look at how virtually every other existing commercial business district in the free world has come to be developed AS PROOF POSITIVE that as one or two large base stores come in, many others follow.
Sorry Mr. Newell, I didn't mean to embarrass you, but with you challenge answewred - it is your turn:
What is Derry's largest problem, challenge or opportunity and how do you proposed it be addressed?
I will try to listen with an open mind, but admitedly my starting point is that you are against everything and thus, do not believe we have any problems,challenges, or opportunites.
BC- I guess that is why decisionmaking is an art not a science. You have expert recommendations but in the end you must weigh all the facts and opinions and make a call. Same thing with any investment decision, if the facts were certain the decision would never have reached you. If we had one loader at the transfer station and the engine when out on it the facts would be clear and money spent to repair/replace. The closer a decision is to the present the more certain we can be of our decisions. That is why I recoil at discussions of fire stations built to last 50 years etc. It is impossible to have any good information on Derry's needs in 50, 30 and maybe 20 years. Can you explain local politicians' fixation with long term studies? I don't get that. Is there any effort so behemouth that we need to start working up to it 30 years in advance? Personally I would rather leave my grandchildren a trust fund rather than an offramp.
Doug,
I appreciate your voice on the subject and don't expect to change your mind of course. I do believe that the more facts that are dicussed the better off the citizens can understand and make their own informed decisions. I'm sure you can agree with me on that statement. As far as political fixation to long term I will tell you that 7 years on Planning Board has taught me "proper planning". No surprises. You look at what the towns needs are, when and how to implement as well as estimating costs and possible ways to pay for infrastructor. I also agree with you that we need to think about the next generation and how we leave them in this world.
One more comment on long range planning. I'm 45. I will probably retire at 65. 20 years from today.If I accept what Social Security will provide me at that time-I am basically rolling the dice with my life. However if i properly long term plan and I decide I want 50K a year at 65 and beyond-I will make the proper judgements to achive those goals. This is the right way and I understand that many are satisfied with the first scenerio ( that is until they have reached 65 and not making what they want) By then it's too late. Derry can't afford to do business that way.
Sorry anon 29/9/07 6:15 AM but you have already used up the Super WalMart justifying the TIF on Rt. 28. To use it again would be double counting.
As for the "political motivated option" of the lottery, I don't get that but since I believe most other people won't have a clue what you are talking about let's let that go.
On you point #2 - Your assumption is that all (or at least 4 - 8 of these big chains are dying to get in here if not for the traffic on 102. I do believe that some development might be encouraged by another exit. By the way, the customers for these new stores... if they are using the exit at 4A I must assume that they are either coming from the North (driving by Mall of NH et al) or the South (driving by Rockingham Mall and the entire 28 strip). Why again are they coming to Derry to shop?
In any case, I believe that our disagreement is on scale. You believe that $50,000,000 of new development will come to Derry (despite its tax rate) and it will arrive fast enough to pay the bonds. You are willing to bet other peoples money on that assumption. I am not. If this was a 3A it might be close enough to the border to make it work. I don't know that would require more study.
By the way, let's say these are Super WalMart equivilants (I don't care what the name on the store is). I haven't researched this but is there enough developable commercial land in Derry to fit 4-8 major retail locations?
Here's an alternative development idea... (I'm only against stupid ideas not against development). Our largest taxpayer is a hospital, we have many fine doctors, dentists and other medical health professionals and an aging population. Why don't we try to get pharmacuetical companies, other hospitals, bio tech etc and make Derry a medical hub? Clean industry, high paying jobs, sounds like it might be worth investigation. Boston is one of the world's medical centers, might we entice just a few companies away from there?
Entice Pharmicuticals? ... an interesting idea.
But with no infrasturcture in place, how do you propose "inticing" the pharmacuticals?
Would you concede that the infrastructure has to be in place for such companies to even look at Derry?
Your question to me is then thrown right back at you....are you willing to gamble an undefined amount of other peoples money to put the infrastructure in place for the pharmacuticals to even take a peek at us with no guarentee that they would come?
Your position is inconsistent.
PS: Have you considered the obvious notion that people in Derry, Chester, etc. are shopping in Manchester and Salem RATHER THAN Derry?
Doug,
Those are great ideas and definetly something to talk about. I do agree we need to "find a niche" whatever that maybe to make Derry a little different than our surrounding communities.
And I agree with the last anynomous with the fact that these companies may not come without proper infrastructor in place. This is why we need 4A.
BC- Interesting analogy but communities are not people they do not have to save up for retirement. I know of no approaching need where the town can or should start saving 30 years in advance.
If the future generation is a concern to you as it is to me, burdening them with bonds that supported a financially failed public works project is not the way to go.
What do you think of my medical hub idea? Lots of high paid highly educated people coming into town, paying more in taxes than they consume. (buying expensive houses BC!
Do we really aspire to being Salem North?
anon 1:01
To be honest with you I'm not sure what it would take to attract Pharma/bio med/another hospital. I do know how businessmen think being one myself. It may be an issue of marketing. I don't know of any particular infrastructure investment that would be needed. Thinking of our advantages selling points: Reasonable distance to Boston one of the medical centers of the world, cheaper everything than Boston. Parkland. Current medical center, Pinkerton for their kids, reasonably well educated work force (considerably better than most of America). Receptive. Good quality of life. Senior execs might stray to the big bucks houses in Windham but not necessarily. Too bad we don't have a university near by, that would make it easy. Of all the companies in that space we would only need a few to plant the seed.
anon 29/9/07 11:01 AM
Sorry about the error in spelling. I'll try to spell check in the future. You have detected one of my weaknesses.
Regarding the shopping patterns, again if you do some math I think that you would find that Derry and the surrounding towns' combined incomes are insufficient to support the number of stores you envision.
You mention Petsmart. There are about 12,000 households in Derry. Let’s double that to include the surrounding towns. If half have pets (many apartments and condos) and they spend an average of $100/year at this store (many spend $0 some much more) that’s only gross revenue of $1.2 million. We need them to pull their weight to play for your Exit. Cost of goods say 50% means net $600k, maybe $250k labor, now we are at $350K. Utilities, plowing parking lot, insurance, theft, store furnishings such as shelving, advertising, etc. that looks like $150k easily. I’d want to be making 5% to 10% of the gross in profit otherwise it’s a waste of time, split the difference call it $90k. We are now down to only $110K available to pay for building and taxes. With $110K left to spend on a building, we could only afford about $1.5 million building which in turn would generate $33k in taxes. You would have to bring in 12 Petsmarts just to pay for the $5 million bond, that’s before the taxpayers saw $1 of tax relief. That's alot of kibble.
More importantly why do Derry residents need Exit 4A to shop in Derry?
If you believe there is all this pent up demand I can refer you to the franchising department of PetSmart. Your fortune awaits.
Doug,
In your 12:14 post you wrote: I don't know of any particular infrastructor investment that would be needed" and you mention the Boston area. If memory serves me correctly all the big businesses moved directly out of Boston when the RTE128 corridor was built. As soon as that happened-Wham you got bio tec, medical business R&D business locating around but not into Boston. This is a good example of what traffic improvements Can do to entice business.
You also state that you are a business man. You then must also know the old saying it takes money to make money- Don't you agree?
BC- yes I agree. (!) I indicated that I didn't know of infrastructure needs particular to the bio-tech community. Attracting them would be a significant expense and would not be without risk of failure. Bio tech needs brains, capital, and a hospitable business environment. Capital flows where there are entrepreneurs with good ideas. Brains follow capital.
Perhaps a Lahey Clinic North sort of thing might be doable? That would need a potential patient base and a favorable environment. Not sure how the current medical establishment might view that.
Just thinking out loud.
So Mr. Newell,
No sweat on the spelling; I'm the last on earth to complain on that.
Let's recap --- as you see it there is no traffic problem on 102 --- problem solved --- thank you.
You're thinking aloud (I appreciate that as well since I do it al the time), but that means you still haven't answered my question:
What is Derry's largest problem, challenge or opportunity and how do you proposed it be addressed?
This is not a trick question --- an answer should roll off the tongue of anyone considering a run for office.
Thus far you have not definitively favored anything, only opposed everything put on the table. In fact, one might conclude from rereading this blog thread that you might oppose your own idea.
Please understand the further you delay answering this simple question, the more people will classify you in the "stall-in-order-to-kill-really-in-order-to-hack-and-slash-town-services" category.
Please answer the question.
Anon 29/9/07 9:37 PM You said “Let's recap --- as you see it there is no traffic problem on 102 --- problem solved --- thank you.” Anon 9:37 Ok the whole blog thread is there in front of you. Show me where I said that. I presented facts from independent authorities that traffic had decreased on RT102 and that the population was no longer growing but rather appears to be shrinking slowly. I will stick my neck out and say TRAFFIC ON RT 102 IS NOT DERRY”S BIGGEST ISSUE. In my mind it is not even in the top ten. If you think it is let me direct you to lists of homes that have been foreclosed on recently. 102’s traffic was not their biggest problem. They did not get stuck in traffic on the way to make the mortgage payment.
Let ‘s compare our tax bills to those of other communities. More importantly compare the residential and commercial/industrial ratios. Yes, we need development and a lot of it if we are to balance the commercial residential tax mix and bring Derry’s taxes into line. We are far too close to a death spiral where high taxes drive away development and lack of development causes taxes to rise, driving away more development.
I am in favor of prudent investment that yields quality development. Imprudent investment yields higher taxes and makes the problem worse. Like a physician, we should first “do no harm.” I lead the push to get the Alliance of Derry Taxpayers to oppose Exit 4A when it became clear that millions of dollars were likely to be spent and no one involved is either capable or willing to do simple return on investment analyses.
You are correct that I have put some ideas on the table that I might oppose. The ideas could be explored and facts might come forth to convince me the ideas are not feasible. The solution then is to come up with new ideas. Would you have me follow any other path? Should I defend a bad idea because it came from me? Sorry I don’t do that.
Derry’s largest problem… great question… you have me thinking, you see there are a bagful of issues that are all tied together, high taxes, lack of development, inability to put issues in perspective, lack of civility in public discourse that drives good people away from town leadership positions. But in the end this is about people.
Derry’s main problem is a lack of leadership. This leadership must come from people who are capable of contributing their significant talents to make the town better. We have some very talented people in this town. Those people are unlikely to tolerate the nasty name calling climate that currently exists. However they better develop thick skins because in providing the leadership tough questions must be asked. The status quo in Derry really doesn’t like questions and tends to react badly.
Here’s an idea they might not like, how about rather than public comment sessions at Council meetings, what if they became question and answer sessions where councilors had to answer questions from the people? That would change the whole tone of the meetings.
Finally let me relay an experience that symbolizes Derry’s problems and its opportunities. Many years ago the local PTA (I believe) was planning to donate some computers to the local schools. A note was sent home asking anyone that wanted to help in the selection to attend a meeting at one of the schools. My recollection is that the turnout overflowed the first meeting room, and almost overflowed a second. I looked around the meeting and realized that sitting around me was tens of millions of dollars worth of technical expertise, local talent that had never been asked to help before but knew that they knew computers and came forth to help. The discussion became lively that these few computers to be purchase were insufficient and that we should form a group to raise money to equip all classrooms with these powerful learning tools. All that talent, all that powerful positive energy aimed at improving our community. The magic disappeared and you could feel the energy leave the room when an official from the school district came in to explain that we could buy any kind of computer as long as it was Apple. The attendees groaned and returned to their homes.
There is talent out there, people who could envision bold plans to solve Derry’s problems. How can we identify and engage these people?
i, for one, just don't get the computer story. apparently the school district had a tech plan (software compatablilty among other issues) that required apples...maybe back when this story took place the schools had already headed down the "apple" path and a cost/benefit analysis couldn't justify doubling the support structure for another platform - even if the computers were free.
let's face it...the writer did, in fact, dismiss traffic on 102 as an issue on his radar.
the writer seems to be saying that "leadership" is the largest problem --- is she/he also seems to imply "elect me" to fix that problem. the writer is not "for" anything tangible...sounds like a politician attempting to tie the foreclsure rate with high taxes and lack of leadership --- the foreclosure rate is a national issue, everyone knows that.
politics of fear? you decide.
DJN,
I'm going equally far out on a limb and say I'm against child abuse.
SPECIFICS, PLEASE!
anon 2;49
Sorry you didn’t get the computer story. The point I was trying to make was that there is incredible untapped talent in town. The leadership that I see as needed must tap that potential to make good things happen here. (We need some new faces contributing their time and skills.) I have one set of skills based upon my education and work experience; many other skills are needed to allow Derry to achieve its potential.
I am amused that you are all fixated on whether or not I will run for office. I’d rather talk about ideas for improving our tax base.
"Politics of fear" Oh I see you understood my message about trying to discuss facts rather than personal attacks... there's always someone who doesn't get the message.
Doug,
I'd like to find out where you're really coming from.
You've said,
"We have some very talented people in this town. Those people are unlikely to tolerate the nasty name calling climate that currently exists."
I agree 100% with this statement and I believe it is currently the #1 problem facing our town.
What I'd like to know is who do you feel are the people responsible for that climate and how/can their actions be prevented or is their removal the only solution?
If removal is the only solution, I'll assume you mean via the ballot, how do you deal with their actions until they are up for re-election?
Questions are good, remember.
Well then, the question of your use of facts --- like Derry's fore closure rate is a constructive question.
Please do not imply that that is a Derry specific problem - anon 2:59 asks "politics of fear?".
My bet (opinion only) is that Derry is fairing alot better than most areas.
Note the question mark "?" --- questioning is good, right?
Doug,
Your resopnse to a post I made earlier contained the following statement, (If Exit 4A can not attract enough development it to pay for itself, it will act in reverse and make Derry less livable, increasing everyone’s taxes.)
My question was more about progress than it was 4A. I am not yet convinced myself that 4A represents progress and without the EIS study I'm not sure we have all the info needed to make an informed decision on it.
But to get back to your statement. Would you not agree that local taxes are only a part of what makes a town more or less livable? Like anyone else, I'd like to be paying less taxes, but if it comes at the cost of failing scools and crumbling infrastructure, what have we really gained?
Also, I've read other posts you've made on this blog where it appears that you're trying to make a connection between Derry's tax rate and mortgage foreclosures. Are you in fact making that connection?
It would seem to be a difficult position to substatiate, particularly with numbers and facts.
NFW – I must say yours was the best question I have received since jumping into the blog. I have been thinking about it for a couple of days and I’m delighted that you wrote again. This gives me an opportunity to elaborate on my previous response.
I believe that you and I may be closer than you think in our view of progress and what a better Derry might look like. Where we may differ is on how to get there. You mentioned schools. I’m passionate about the subject! For years I have volunteered to travel throughout Northern New England to recruit for a university. I consider that a privilege to meet and talk to these extraordinary bright young men and women. I ran for school board, offering to join the other volunteers in using our time to try to improve Derry’s education. You mention open space and I was considering your letter today as I did my daily run of my dogs through Farmer Phil’s acres. (I went that way today because the deer family were blocking my Southern route.) In the last 24 hours I’ve seen 2 deer, 12 turkeys, a coyote, and a few dozen Canadian geese. I have turned down jobs paying 3X what I make to enjoy this quality of life in this neighborhood. Historical preservation - I am indebted to Rick Holmes for directing my son in documenting the sawmills in Derry for his Boy Scout Eagle project. Helping my son with that project gave me a wonderful understanding of early American economies.
Where we differ is on how to achieve this vision. As an economist by education, I see that the world (and Derry) has finite resources. Everything is a tradeoff and the vision we share requires careful application of those precious resources. Therefore waste angers me whether it is waste of bright young minds, waste of tax dollars, waste of leadership potential when talented people sit on the sidelines, or waste of environmental resources.
I jumped into this blog first because I was being criticized by anonymous bloggers and then to try to explain why Exit 4A is one of those wastes. It robs us of opportunities to do other development efforts that might be more productive. Effective development balances the residential and commercial/industrial mix, lowers the tax rate and provides money for more historical preservation (another form of education), and all these other efforts that will make Derry a better place.
Waste comes from ignorance. Perhaps the supporters of 4A are unskilled in financial analysis. It is my hope that the leadership in Derry begins to consciously think about those tradeoffs. Another $40,000 for the EIS study, well that’s the taxes that five to ten of our neighbors work all year to put into the pot. That’s a good portion of the Historical Museum’s annual budget, I’d guess that’s several acres of additional wildlife preservation, or that could be new computers for ten classrooms. Spending more money because we have already sunk so much into the EIS is “putting good money after bad”. I do not decide whether to junk a car based upon how much I have spent on repairs but rather on the value to me in the future. Unfortunately the EIS study is unlikely to have any value. There are so many better things to do with those resources.
I hope I have answered your question. Thank you for asking it and for making me think about Derry’s progress.
At the risk of sounding too simplistic let me say this. We have $5M each committed by the towns. The project is expected to cost several times that amount. When asked where the rest of the money is going to come were given an "assumption" that the state and feds will pick up the rest. Lots of assumptions being made here. All I know is that in my house we don't go out and spend money we don't have. We have the money in the bank first and then we spend it. Wouldn't it be just a little more prudent to have a concrete commitment for the rest of the money before we go out and spend it?
At the risk of sounding overly negative I have to tell you that in all the years I've lived in this town (Derry) I've seen the people who are responsible for making these decisions spend our tax dollars like a bunch of drunken sailors!! My property taxes have gone from $5K to $8K in just several years. I can't wait until I can sell my house and move out of this town. That's IF I CAN sell my home because the outrageous tax burden placed upon us by people who are making these decisions has eaten up the marketabiltiy of my home! To be more specific who really wants to buy a home where the taxes levied upon it are so high that the monthly payment is nearly as high as your mortgate principal payment? This is nuts!!! Stop spending our money people!!! Think before you spend it!!! Think like you and your children are going to write the check to pay for it! If you don't have the money then say "No".
That's what I tell my kids when we don't have the money for something - NO!
Please note that I made no assumptions. Just dealt with the facts.
anonymous 1:46,
I hear what your saying. But we have not spent 5 million on 4 A so your tax increase did not come from this. We have not issued a bond for any money yet on Exit 4A. WE have spent alot of money on an EIS study so far though. Lets look at this in a different perspective. Lets say you spent money putting your kid through college and in his/her last year before graduation and before your child can use that degree that they worked so hard for to have a decent salary-You tell them Ahh i think I will not be paying for your last year of college.
Would you be comfortable knowing you started the process that you were not going to finish or do you find a way to make it happen. There is no way knowing what your kid will make using his/her new degree either. You have to have some faith. And so its the same here.-We want lower taxes-and there are some that would go without services and some that want to bring in business to offset taxes. Keep in mind that the town has spent money to get to this point ( before my time in council) Do you walk away?
Obviously not! Our escalating tax increases and rates (among the highest in the state given the property tax assessments in the town) came from the fact that nobody in responsibility knows how to say "No"!
In management studies there is such a thing called "irrational escalation of commitment" or "commitment bias". It refers to a situation in which people can make bad decisions based upon rational decisions in the past or to justify actions already taken. Examples are frequently seen when parties engage in a bidding war; the bidders can end up paying much more than the object is worth to justify the initial expenses associated with bidding (such as research), as well as as part of a competitive instinct. In business it becomes apparent when people increase their investment in a decision despite new evidence suggesting that the initital decision was probably wrong or where there is no real evidence that suggests that there course of action is going to be successful. Such investment often includes money (known informally as "throwing good money after bad") It is the result of poor decision-making.
The fact is that WE DON'T KNOW WITH ALL CERTAINTY WHO WILL BE PAYING FOR MAJORITY OF THIS BILL. Also, maybe I just failed to read about it, but do we know of any significant businesses that wish to locate in Derry and have put off a decision to do so because there is presumably a lack of accessability?
I surely can't speak for the rest of the average "Joe Taxpayers" in Derry. However, based on the trends in this town, even IF this venture brought in new business and the town was able to realize new revenues it is highly unlikely that these would be used to offset our present tax burden. To the contrary, the additional revenues would be used to finance more, and more and more. Until you stop spending nothing goes down. We will never see any property tax relief in this town until somebody learns to use the word "NO". Until then our taxes will continue to go up. As property values go down (as in Berlin, Keene, etc.) our rate will go up to ensure the flow of taxpayers dollars and our homes will continue to lose their value.
I live within a mile of the WIndham line. If my home were in Windham it would be worth far more than it is even in this market. It's worth less not because Derry is a bad place to live.
It's worth less because it's a bad place to own a home. It's that way because of the taxes we pay!
JUST SAY NO!!!
I say move ahead with 4A... The traffic congestion on the Alan B. Shepard Highway is never going to get better, only worse. If the improvements are needed now, I can only imagine 5 or 10 years from now. Think about the current residents needs. Without even looking at the future, we could all benefit right now! Finish the study, secure the funding from Washington/State of NH, and move forward already.
BC- Let me introduce you to the concept of a "sunk cost". The money spent to date on 4A is gone, no getting it back, and is irrelevant... whether it was $1 or a million.
The funding decision for the EIS should consider what completing the EIS will cost and whether the product be worth this additional investment. After another unknown hundreds of thousands of dollars you will have a report that enables you to build an offramp.This offramp can neither be justified by development economics nor by traffic considerations.
The silence of 4A proponents' replies are deafening. No facts, and not even the usual lame opinions.
Mr. Newell,
Again, thus far you have not definitively favored anything, you have simply opposed every idea that's been put on the table.
I still assert that under your logic, NO economic development can be justified - we cannot have signed agreements BEFORE infrastructure is in place.
When pressed as to what you believe to be Derry's biggest problem or opportunity, you have given the answer of "leadership".
A reasonable person might tie those two points together this way...your view of leadership is to do nothing. I have to admit that on some occassions thats a good option, but it appears to be your only option.
Doug,
Do you have the same feelings about some councilors wanting to spend $400K on a bike path? It would be interesting to hear your views on this topic that was brought up by councilor Coyle.
and has the blessings of Councilors Carney and Fairbanks as well. Councilor Fairbanks has worked on this for 13 months.
Doug,
To walk away now means that Londonderry's 5 mill goes away. The states (so far) 3 Mil goes away. I'm willing to bet Londonderry will use theirs to welcome in new business and the state will get lobbied by Manchester and/or Bedford to use for their infrastructor and Derry will ????????????????
Don't say lower their taxes. It aint happening without business coming.
I find it interesting that Coyle/Fairbanks/Carney are not in support of 4A because they don't know where all of the funding will come from, but they announce that they ARE in favor of a half million dollar bike path with an unknown funding source(s).
These three councilors never cease to amaze me...
I'm looking forward to seeing the trio - or their crowd - lead a private funding effort for the bike path.
Perhaps they will try delegate this effort to the community group most closely tied to them - the ADT. Word is that they have 100 members raring to go.
Oh Mr. Newell, are you still out there??????
hey i have to say that i live in district 1 and have call Mrs. Fairbanks on a couple of occasions regarding the bike path. The monies for this path could be raised privately. from speaking to a member of the windham association most if not all was raised and the path built with private money. i feel it would be great for the downtown if i could bike there with the family i would definately spend more $$$$ and time there. i spend it in windham and would rather spend it in derry. i suggest that before you all go slamming some councilors for wanting to improve this town why don't you check into how the $$$ could be raised without using public money. Maybe the DEDC could donat some of the money is has taken from the taxpayers, i think this would be a great gesture towards the town and maybe even smooth some wrinkles that have been created by them taking money from the town.
anon 12:15,
Thanks for the post. If the money can be raised privately then that would say alot about the community. At the last meeting Councilor Coyle said he thought the taxpayers would have to foot the lion's share. Remember that we live under a tax cap in this town and money is going to be getting tighter and tighter ( good thing ) and we need to make priorty spending on Musts and not Wants.
If private funds are there thats great!
With regards to her professional relationships with many key people in town, how could Councilor Fairbanks spearhead or lead a private funding effort?
To Annon 12:15: The DEDC has never "taken" money form the town or the taxpayers. Funding was "given" to or granted to them for certain services via a majority vote of several different town councils.
The DEDC is a private organization that no longer accepts funding from the town.
There is no case to be made that they should give any money back.
BC- yes walking away now means that Londonderry's money goes away. The state' money goes away. That is the point... the project goes away! Derry's taxpayers stop being drained by a project that might have been a good idea 20 years ago but isn't a good idea now.
BC I think I have made the point that if less business development comes in than is required to pay the bonds, Derry become less attractive and businesses will be more likely to go to surrounding communities. This is not opinion, it is mathematics. A negative (the bond cost) plus a smaller positive (some development but less than enough to pay the bond) can not equal a positive for Derry.
You can differ with me about the amount of development we might expect but the consequences of insufficent development are mathematically certain.
Since I have been asked... I have no strong opinion about the bike path other than that free people should be allowed to do what they want with their money, including contributing to building bike paths. As to whether the town should fund some or all of it, I would need more facts about other draws on the town's resources, maintenance costs if any and expected useage. I prefer as many facts as possible before vendering opinions.
DESPITE NOW 4 DIFFERENT PROMPTS IN THIS BLOG, MR. NEWELL STILL HAS NOT DIFINITIVELY FAVORED ANYTHING; HE HAS SIMPLY OPPOSED ALMOST EVERYTHING THAT HAS BEEN PUT ON THE TABLE.
BY DEFAULT, I DECLARE THAT MR. NEWELL BELIEVES THAT DERRY HAS NO TANGIBLE PROBLEMS OR OPPORTUNITIES. HOW CAN HIS SILENCE BE INTERPRETED ANY OTHER WAY?
IN FAIRNESS, MR. NEWELL DID OFFER THAT LEADERSHIP WAS DERRY'S BIGGEST PROBLEM OR OPPORTUNITY.
IS THIS HIS AXIOM?: "DON'T JUST DO SOMETHING, STAND THERE!"
Anon 6:25 PM
You are either not reading or not comprehending my comments. To summarize:
• I favor lower taxes in Derry.
• I favor development that will result in those lower taxes.
• I favor investigating more beneficial alternatives to 4A such as a 3A or an access road.
• I favor sound financial analysis before taxpayer money is invested in projects.
• I favor voluntary actions by citizens to better the community whether those are bike paths or scouts clearing trails on conservation land.
• I favor civility in government and believe the way to achieve that is by leading by example such as Mr. Carey is doing.
• I favor elimination of waste in government because, by definition, no one gets long term benefits from waste.
• I favor education as the key to our children’s ability to compete in this world.
• I favor innovation, creativity and leadership in government and in industry. I have seen that such innovation can make 2+2= 1000. See the impact of semiconductors on our lives.
• I favor appropriate capitalization when using the English language.
Thanks for tossing me this softball.
ThAnKs FoR a NoBlE ***FIRST*** AtTeMpt BuT jUsT lIKe YoU, I'Ll sTiCk My nEcK Out; I FaVoR PeAcE oN EaRtH AnD GoOd WiLl ToWaRdS mEn.
ThErE iS oNlY OnE SpEcIfiC PoSiTiOn In YoUr LiSt.
Anon 2:01 PM – no these are not “peace on earth” proposals. In fact, I would say they may put me in a minority among people involved in Derry politics. Certainly the majority of the town council would not agree with things I favor. For example since this is a 4A blog string I must conclude that most of the 4A partisans are not in favor of lower taxes in Derry, or investigating more beneficial alternatives to 4A such as a 3A or an access road, or sound financial analysis before taxpayer money is invested in projects. A casual reading of blogs and letters to the editor shows a shortage of civility in Derry politics.
Leadership is setting the tone and direction not getting lost in details. If you are looking for my view on our firemen’s insurance co-pays on odd numbered Thursdays, you are unlikely to get the answers you seek here.
i gotta admit my memory isnt what it used to be but i seem to remember that exit 3a was looked at and ruled out because of wetlands. anyone remember anything on this.
Annon 7:12,
Exit 3A?
You are correct; exit 3A was looked at and it was deemed not possible due to conflicts with wetlands.
Though even if it were viable, how could anyone who opposes 4A on the basis of ROI logically favor 3A?
With exit 3A Derry would not be sharing the cost with Londonderry and thus would cost the equivalent of twice as many Super Walmarts = 40!! Nice attempt at a diversion though.
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